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USDCAD 4 HOUR CHART – CPI ON DECK
Next focus is on CPI at 12:30 GMT amid talk of a risk of a July rate cut
As this chart shows, USDCAD is trading with a bid ahead of cpi but there is little until 1.3755 so no key stops nearby.
On the downside, 1.3610-30 is support ahead of 1.3589 low.
This makes 1.3589-1.3755 the key range on this chart.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION THREAT LOOMS
USDJPY rebound from yesterday’s brief break to 157.15 has renewed 158+ (high 158.79) before backing off as the intervention threat looms (reports indicate the BoJ intervened in July 12).
Only a break of 159.45 would put 160 in play again, suggesting the current range may be 157-159.
Ignored has been a drop in US yields which have given back yesterday;s Truno Trade gains.(4.18% 10 year)
BTC DAILY CHART – PART OF THE TRUMP TRADE?
BTC sharp rise on Monday could be part of the Trump Trade as it is assumed he would be more favorable to cryptos if he wins the election.
Using this chart, if 63810 is firmly broken, it would confirm an uptrend.
To keep it simple, if 65k+ is established then 70k would be back on the radar with the record high looming above it.
Nasdaq – NDX
Wall Street set to rise as investors bet on second Trump term
U.S. stock indexes were set to open higher on Monday, as traders priced in a greater chance of presidential candidate Donald Trump winning a second term after surviving an assassination attempt, while rate cut hopes further boosted sentiment.
Under Trump, markets expect a hawkish trade policy and looser regulations over issues from climate change to cryptocurrency.
EURUSD Monthly
When in doubt, go for a Bigger picture…and this is the biggest one.
I’ll skip on usual Supp/Res – look for it on smaller time frames like Daily
What is emerging here is a Bullish Pattern , that might lead the pair through both of resistances – Downtrend lines.
If taken out, we’ll be facing a drastic change – Downtrend from Mid 2008. will turn into Uptrend.
We have to be aware that big fundamental news can screw it all up….and we are in the middle of some serious political upheaval – both in Europe and USA.
1.30 would be the first target .
XAUUSD – Gold – Weekly
An interesting situation developed on Gold :
We are facing possible triple top, but 2295.00 Support held – what makes it interesting is the fact that the support is a previous Resistance of a Channel ( so now support ).
Seems as interest in Gold is not slowing down…
If this is the case, we might see 2.600.00 after all .
Amazon – AMZN
Amazon Set To Top Last Year’s Prime Day Results Due To Early Deals, Analysts Say
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN should beat last year’s Prime Day results due to “early access deals,” analysts say.
Bank of America BAC expects sales for this year’s 48-hour sales spree to jump 7% to $13 billion, beating the 6.1% sales leap to $12.7 billion posted during last year’s Prime Day
Tesla – TSLA
Tesla surges as Musk’s Trump endorsement boosts hope for self-driving tech approval
Electric automaker Tesla’s shares TSLA rise 5.2% to $261.22
** TSLA fell 1.3% in the week ended July 12 after rising over 27% in the prior seven-day period
** Company’s CEO Elon Musk publicly endorsed Donald Trump on X for the U.S. presidential race
** Endorsement came after assassination attempt on Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday
Nvidia – NVDA
Nvidia’s Stock Surge Raises Concentration Risks For Investors, Warns Analyst: Not ‘Smart…To Have That Many Eggs In One Basket”
Asset managers have increased their holdings of Nvidia as its stock price has surged. Data from Morningstar reveals that 355 actively managed funds held Nvidia positions that accounted for 5% or more of their assets at the end of the first quarter of 2024, a significant increase from 108 funds in the same period last year.
holding riski assets eh ?
Goldman challenges Fed’s demand it hold more capital after stress test, FT reports
July 14 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab has lodged an appeal with the U.S. Federal Reserve challenging its result in the regulator’s most recent “stress test,” which is set to force the bank to hold a greater amount of capital, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The Federal Reserve’s annual “stress test” exercise showed last month that the biggest U.S. banks would have enough capital to withstand severe economic and market turmoil but firms faced steeper hypothetical losses this year due to riskier portfolios.
The tested banks overall saw losses of 17.6% to existing loan balances on credit cards and among them Goldman Sachs recorded 25.4% in losses.
My enemies at Black Rock just hit a $10.6 Trillion asset valuation, but my friends at Goldman hit a 150% profit gain on some really smooth trading acumen. Always loved Goldman. Hate BlackRock, bad people.
US Dollar has legs on the attack on Trump, and judging by the mood of people who have called me about it even the somewhat liberal one’s are angry at the current establishment. I think there will be a lot of pre-election pricing which will become quite muted about 3 weeks prior.
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What is Risk Management in Trading – Forex Forum
For any trader, managing risk is essential to success. But what exactly is risk management? In this blog post, we’ll explore what risk management is and how it can help you become a successful trader.
We’ll also look at some common mistakes that traders make when it comes to managing their risks. After all, if you’re not managing risk appropriately, you’re just a gambler. So if you’re ready to learn more about risk management, read on!
What is Risk Management in Trading?
Risk management is the process of assessing, controlling, and managing risk within a trading portfolio. This involves defining trading goals and understanding potential losses that could occur as part of the trading process.
It also includes identifying potential risks, such as market volatility or sudden changes in the market, understanding how these risks can affect your profits, and taking steps to limit potential losses.
In general, risk management should be a priority for all traders. By properly managing your risks and using effective strategies, you can minimize potential losses and increase the chances of making successful trades.
Common Mistakes When Managing Risk in Trading
Unfortunately, many traders make mistakes when it comes to managing their risks. Here are some of the most common mistakes that traders make when it comes to risk management:
Not Setting a Trading Plan:
Many traders don’t have a detailed trading plan, which is a key component of risk management. Without a trading plan, traders are more likely to take risks that could have otherwise been avoided. It’s important to establish clear trading goals and a plan for how to reach those goals.
Not Understanding Risk:
Many traders fail to understand the risks associated with certain trades, which can lead to serious losses if they don’t take the time to research and understand the risks involved. It’s important to have a thorough understanding of the markets you’re trading in before taking any risks.
Not Taking Advantage of Stop Losses:
Stop losses are an essential component of risk management, as they help to limit potential losses in the event of a market downturn or sudden changes in the market. However, many traders don’t take advantage of stop losses and end up taking larger risks than necessary.
Over-Trading:
Over-trading is a common mistake made by many traders. This involves taking too many trades, which can lead to losses if the market turns against you. Look, all traders love the price action. It’s exciting to take a position and watch your P/L go up and down. But don’t become addicted to the price action for the sake of just having a position. It’s important to only take trades when the setup is right and avoid over trading.
Not Diversifying Risk:
Diversification is another important part of risk management. By diversifying your trades, you can spread out risk and limit potential losses if the market turns against you.
Why is Risk Management Important in Trading?
Risk management is a critical factor in success when trading in the markets. It involves understanding and controlling what could potentially impact your trades and actively analyzing scenarios that may occur.
Without proper risk management, traders are leaving themselves vulnerable to potential losses which could be catastrophic for their investments.
Good risk management also allows traders to effectively assess opportunities and make better decisions that take into account volatility or leading indicators of future market performance.
Simply put, risk management can provide peace of mind so traders can enjoy the highs of profitable investments while minimizing losses when markets start to dip.
What are Some Common Risk Management Strategies?
Common risk management strategies used by traders include setting stop-loss orders, limiting capital exposure, and diversifying investments to minimize volatility.
Another essential approach for traders is to set predetermined targets for both profits and losses to help stabilize your exposure. To further limit potential losses and maximize gains, traders should always be aware of economic news and other world events that might affect the market.
How to Implement Risk Management in your Trading Plan
Implementing effective risk management into your trading plan is incredibly important for successful and profitable trading. It can help you to control the amount of draws you take in any given trade, and it can also protect against large losses which could potentially wipe out your entire trading account.
A good risk management plan should include determining the amount of capital at risk on each trade, setting predetermined stop-losses to limit downside exposure, and having a strict, disciplined approach towards minimizing losses:
never increasing position size
never risking more than you are comfortable with, and always controlling potential risk-reward ratios.
Taking the time to set up a comprehensive yet flexible risk management plan will put you in a better position when it comes to positive returns in the long run.
Risk management is an important part of trading. It allows you to trade with less stress and more confidence. There are many different risk management strategies, so it is important to find one that fits your trading style.
Proper risk management can help you make money in the long run by preserving your capital and preventing you from making careless mistakes.
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