[Mtl JP]

Summers says
(Bloomberg) Fed Recovered From Egregious Inflation Mistake
• Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says the Fed has redeemed itself.
• He told Bloomberg TV the central bank’s post-COVID policy was an “egregious” mistake.
• But the Fed appears to have avoided his worst-case recession predictions, he said.
Future jobs prints could sway this. For instance, if unemployment or nonfarm payroll data worsens, analysts have argued that a deeper cut could be worthwhile.

Yeah ! …. And start a TREND

I hope that if as I expect vp harris is elected president that the broad economic strategy is going to one that is all about opportunity

[Mtl JP]

Goolsbee says
(Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while he’s not ready to explicitly call for a central bank rate cut, monetary policy is quite tight and is no longer aligned with current economic conditions.

[Mtl JP]

bostic’s yakkings ;
“recession is not in my book”

there is an easy fix for that raphael: change books
the one you currently have is out-dated

[SF Monedge]

Working on an hour later and the low is 100.60 (2 ticks away from 100.62).  I can be pretty accurate with Quant application in markets.

[SF Monedge]

There is a very moderate probability of DX holding at precisely 100.62 according to quant calculation.

[SF Monedge]

JP – 5:51  You remind me of the great electric violinist from Canada JeanLuc Ponti.

[Mtl JP]

the reason I like a trade around the figure because of the low cost risk
one will know fairly quickly and at low cost if they wrong
just a matter of outlasting jubbs playing “nerves” for violin

[Mtl JP]

1.1197 I smell nigel jubbs

[Mtl JP]

1.1195 euro puppy revisiting previous high

IF it holds – i.e. does not bust out N,
it have made a 2 top and head back S to collect some pips

so now it is a matter of game of nerves

[michael Calif]

Euro futures rally from Oct. 2022 remains a dead cat bounce when viewed from the 2oo8 High    :gtwo3

[SF Monedge]

CBOE S/P 100 options are actually still in a sell bias overall and should likely see 2670 area before any decent probabilities are present to warrant entertaining the buy side.  (I also employ a very “neural network” approach)

[SF Monedge]

I employ a largely quant based approach to markets as opposed to use of lines, averages and/or indicators.  If certain properties are stable in UsdJpy looking into next week there is likelihood we see 143.20 or so, which is an area I may consider operating on a dominantly buy side basis again.

Caveat – There is none.  I am smoking hot.

Greatest risk – Look no further than Kamala Harris and the rest of them.

[GVI Forex]

I have mentioned this before – beware of one-way Fridays once the dust settles.

This is setting up as one of those days, meaning USD offers lying in wait.

Pivotal levels to watch in all key currencies

EURUSD 1.12
GBPUSD 1.32
USDCAD 1.35
USDJPY 145
AUDUSD .68

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD above 1.32 is at highest level since March 2022

Stay alert BOE Gov Bailey to speak.

[GVI Forex]

Sept 6 NFP is 2 weeks away and that is the key event.. so far risk on with stocks happy

If you want a USD bias indicator, use EURUSD 1.1150 intra-day

Watch US stocks for risk mood

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.1150
so in my op he has had it both ways, not overly out-doving himself and introdused still and yet again an element of prudenece ,,, sensitive to incooming data.

ie start pricing next NFP

[SF Monedge]

I have been voicing for days my preference for the buy side of US Dollar which some people very understandably felt was not a good idea.  I have been on fire on the long side of UsdJpy.  I win this time again.

I was short the pair just prior to Powell opening his mouth with DX hitting 101.50 and hit big again.  But my position on the pair further out has not changed.  Still prefer the buy side overall.

Due in part to major banks ranging in recession projections from between 15% to as high as 35%, if they are correct then if there is a recession it should not be expected to be dramatic barring the occurrence of dramatic scenarios.

The hyperbolic sentiments of 50 to 100bps cuts is ridiculous one might think.  Hyperbolic statements create liquidity.

The smile curve in USD is right in the middle at present and so there is plenty of room for risk appetite or doom and gloom since the Dollar appreciates in either scenario.

After all the con-artistry, lies and false claims in the Democratic National Convention and the false figures one thing must be paid attention to  –_–

EMPLOYMENT

One has to wonder if these facts surface from Powell today:

The last three BLS quarterly job data revisions:

Minus 612,000

Minus 735,000

Minus 915,000 (actual is more than 818k reported).

Net Job Losses:

Two Million Two Hundred Sixty Two Thousand

 

·        The hire to job openings ratio between 2018-2020 was 0.85 on average.

·        The ratio has since fallen to its current rate of roughly 0.35, which is a 500% decrease.

·        This equates to hirings having fallen from 8 hires per 10 job postings to 4 out of 10.

For consideration regarding real economics according to the respected source Resume Builder:

1.        4 out of 10 jobs posted in the US in 2024 were “fake.”

2.        3 out of every 10 jobs in 2024 had roles that were not “real.”

[GVI Forex]

Powell speech is done… knee jerk reaction…

As a GV member just said to me

Hairy trading, got to be fast… noi hero

[GVI Forex]

Stops run in GBPUSD above 1.3142 as Powell speaks

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 3.831%

[Author]

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