XAUUSD 4 HIYR CHART – ON THE SIDELINES?
SO FAR, THERE W]HAS BEEN LITTLE REACTION TO THE LATEST PROPOSAL FOR AN ISRAEL-HAMAS CEASEFIRE.
WHAT CAUGHT MY ATTENTION IN THIS CHART IS THAT MOVES OUTSIDE OF 2300-2400 HAVE LACKED FOLLOW-THROUGH.
WITHIN THIS RANGE EXPECT 2350 TO BE PIVOTAL IN SETTING THE BIAS, ESPECIALLY FOR DAY TRADERS..cURRENT TIGHT RANGE IS 2319-52
Geoploitical news
RIYADH, April 29 (Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday urged Hamas to swiftly accept an Israeli proposal for a truce in the Gaza war and the release of Israeli hostages held by the Palestinian militant group.
Hamas negotiators were expected to meet Qatari and Egyptian mediators in Cairo on Monday to deliver a response to the phased truce proposal which Israel presented at the weekend.
“Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel,” Blinken said at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi capital Riyadh..truncated
DLRx 105.70 / 10-YR 4.642%
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I gage that player collective is expecting and therefore pricing in what is generally termed “jerome’s FED’s hawkish pivot” on wednesday. odds calcs suggest around 25bps by december.
10-yr… 2yr … probably on “watch” radar.
europe, incidentaly, is on holiday on Wednesday (the so what: likely thin participation)
Bottom Line
I am biased but this time around I am not enthusiastic about much upside potential for the DLR.
Maybe friday’s incoming US jobs data will stirr the juices pot some
SCROLL BELOW AND YOU WILL SEE MY REFERENCE TO THE “MONDAY EFFECT.’
SEE WHAT IT MEANS IN THE FOLLOWING
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – OUT OF STEAM?
With EURJPY still above key levels but losing its strong momentum it remains to be seen whether EURUSD can keep its bid ahead of key events this week.
What caught my attention looking at this chart is the failure to seriously take out the 1.0750 level (power of 60).
Mark down today’s high for if it holds, pressure could re-emerge on the downside as the week progresses (“Monday Effect”).
THIS IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE TIPS AND WORTH REPEATING AS IT IS A TIMELY ONE NOW THAT THE BOJ HAS FINALLY INTERVENED IN USDJPY.
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The forex market is on a constant search for the path of least resistance, whether it be on the up or downside for a currency. A trend starts like the gently flowing stream, picks up momentum as with the cascading water, and then reaches a climax when it hits the waterfall.
Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
Jay Meisler’s Common Sense Trading: How You Can Identify the Path of Least Resistance?
EURJPY DAILY CHART = DAMAGE NOT YET FATAL
While intervention has been in USDJPY, crosses have felt the impact as well. With that said, if you want to be short JPY there is less chance of intervention in crosses than in USDJPY.
EURJPY retreat from 171.55 shows key supports still untouched
165.34
163.36 (Trendline)
163.01
While the damage is not yet fatal the intervention has restored a two-way risk to a one-way market. .
THIS BLOG ARTICLE POSTED LAST WEEK INCLUDES A PRIMER ON INTERVENTION AND WHICH TYPE TENDS TO BE MOST EFFECTIVE,. I SUGGEST READING IT NOW THAT THE BOJ HAS SHOWN ITS HAND.
Many new traders have not experienced intervention and even those who have traded on this event, it pays to have a refresher to see which type tends to be most effective. I call it an intervention primer.
DID THE BOJ READ OUR BLOG ARTICLE POSTED ON FRIDAY?
Is it Time for the Bank of Japan to Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is?
Should the BoJ decide to take a stand and intervene, it would look to get the most bang for its buck. In other words, pick a time where it would use the least resources and produce the greatest impact from intervention.
If I was in the BoJ’s shoes I would wait until just after the Tokyo opening on Monday, let the market push USDJPY up and come in with both barrels blazing. I would then smash USDJPY below 155, sit at that level with an offer to make it a resistance and let the market do the rest.
is it Time for the Bank of Japan to Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is?
USDJPY Weekly
If BoJ means serious business and not just slowing down , they will have to get in again…and strong…This YoYo has to go at least 1.200 pips down to confirm the Reversal.
Although there is a chance for another Intervention, but right now the pressure is shifting to the Upper side…once again…
So let’s see who prevails 😀
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