BTC 4 HOUR CHART -TRENDLINE SUPPORT
As I have noted, I prefer to look at chart patterns and pivotal levels more than technical levels on a crypto chart.
In this regard, watch the trendline as it will provide support on dips as long as it holds.
On the upside, BTC would need to move above 65K to suggest more legs to this recovery
US500 4 HOUR CHART – ALSO TAKING A BREATHER?
Similar to NAS, I read that July is historically a good month for stocks. Time will tell but I think I heard that S&P has traded higher in July for 8 years in a row.
Given the strong move up a pause and consolidation should noy be a surprise. To suggest more than a pause, 5445 on this chart would need to be firmly taken out.
Clearly markets are still in shell shock on one side of the fence and exuberant on the other side of the fence over the absolute 1st round knockout of Biden. Now the question is building of when, not if, Trump is President again what will be the impact of tariffs on Chinese imports and markets. The losing side has themselves convinced that the end of the world is nigh and there could not possibly be anything but atomic war and the second coming of Godzilla. I would wager the appropriate reaction will be initial market apprehension and scalable impact to the negative in economics but the broader view will stabilize and actually accelerate in time as global firms make intelligent adjustments to supply chains and the like.
China will be forced to improve quality of product over time, which is a benefit to countries large and small which are being flooded with cheap product that has a crushing effect on domestic performance. So no, Ozzy Osborne (Trump) will not destroy the world. The opposite.
NAS100 DAILY CHART – TAKING A BREATHER?
When we look back perhaps we will say the NAS high was in but looking at this chart, the highlighted level (red arrow) and the trendline would need to be taken out to suggest that this is anything other than a much needed pause and consolidation,
During this first week of a new quarter, suggest taking it one day at a time.
I read that July is historically a good month for stocks, time will tell.
June EU 108 calls are at the floor so if you have a Warren Buffet type approach of buy when everyone else is selling this would be a place worth considering in spot. Other internals which are not options are bid slightly but with outside contracts not so sure so it is a hesitant bid for spot here at 0720.
US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD – PRICE IS INVERSE WITH YIELDS
As seen on this chart, bond is falling in price and yield is rising.
10-year 4.479%, +13.6bps
As I noted, FX is following with the dollar firmer
USDJPY extending its high, USDCHF extending its high above .90
EURUSD easing but gaps (1.074 and 1.0714)yet to be filled.
US equities are following lower as well.
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