USDJPY Daily
That lowest trend line – a bit of Thumb analysis – width of the channel….
It was there before all this happened…
As for a “Hidden hand” Jay, how about BoJ ….they don’t like any extremes….screwing up with their economy big time.
Every single Japanese product is about 15% more expensive compared to 15 days ago…
USDCAD WEEKLY CHART – PAUSE BELOW MAJOR HIGH
USDCAD reversing after pause below 1.3977
Still just a retracement as key levels are distant.
The move down is consistent with the repatriation argument during times of stress.
A close below 1,3834 would produce an outside day key reversal (questionable how well it works in FX). but 1.38 is likely most important in keeping the bid.
YES or NO
———
Earlier Dudley was screaming that his hair caught fire (in reaction to Sahm indicator)
Now ….” as speculation about hurried and dramatic interest rate cuts mounts”
more moRE MORE screamers:
Leading economist issues dire warning about the US economy
A leading economist has issued a dire warning about the US economy – tearing into the Federal Reserve for a ‘policy blunder’ that could send the country into recession. Mohamed El-Erian (Pictured), the chief economic advisor at Allianz, said on Sunday he fears the economy may be spiraling following a dismal unemployment report last week.
Wharton’s Jeremey Siegel on Monday called on the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75 basis points emergency cut in the federal funds rate after Friday’s disappointing jobs report.
In addition, there should be “another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting — and that’s minimum,”
So here is THE bet:
Will the FED gang heed the screamers:
YES
NO
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Whether the prospect of a U.S. recession is real or imagined, the mere return of the discussion has been enough to send world stocks and bond yields reeling just as AI doubts and a Japan-led volatility spike have barreled into holiday-thinned August.
And like many global selloffs before it, there’s the risk of a self-feeding spiral amid a frantic search for “safe” bonds as speculation about hurried and dramatic interest rate cuts mounts.
Morning Bid: Stocks reel on ‘R-word’ return, Nikkei dives 12%
USD500 WEEKLY CHART – 10% CORRECTION LEVEL
With Nasdaq already in correction territory (more than 10% off the record high), an equivalent level in US500 comes in at 5105.
Calling for a bottom in this type of market is like throwing a dart so watch 5200 as one of those pivotal levels as well as 5192, briefly broken so far.’
Chart shows 4923 as next key support, making 5000-52000 a pivotal zone.
USD500 WEEKLY CHART – 10% CORRECTION LEVEL
With NAsdaq already in correction territory (more than 10% off the record high), an equivalent level in US500 comes in at 5105.
Calling for a bottom in this type of market is like throwing a dart so watch 5200 as one of those pivotal levels as well as 5192, briefly broken so far.’
Cahrt shows 4923 as next key support, making 5000-52000 a potential area that could cause a pause.
BTC WEEKLY CHART – HE BIGGEST LOSER
BTC BRIEF BREAK BELOW 50k SETS THIS AS THE KEY LEVEL.
You can see why ON THIS CHART with a big void of key levels on the downside.
Back above 53435 would be needed to slow the threat.
Why is BTC so weak and not acting as a safe haven?
I can answer that with more questions than answers
Is it unwindibg of JPY carry trades>
Is it a need for liquidity to cover losses/margin calls in other markets?
Is it part of a deleveraging process?
Is it that cryptos are just a house of cards?
Contact me at jay@global-view.com with your thoughts
BTC WEEKLY CHART – HE BIGGEST LOSER
BTC BRIEF BREAK BELOW 50k SETS THIS AS THE KEY LEVEL.
You can see why ON THIS CHART with a big void of key levels on the downside.
Back above 53435 would be needed to slow the threat.
Why is BTC so weak and not acting as a safe haven?
I can answer that with more questions than answers
Is it unwindibg of JPY carry trades>
Is it a need for liquidity to cover losses/margin calls in other markets?
Is it part of a deleveraging process?
Is it that cryptos are just a house of cards?
Conatc me at jay@global-view.com with your thoughts
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – WATCH 142
The last time USDJOY traded below 142 was 27 weeks ago enroute to 161.93 and only 5 weeks to trade back below 142.
Why am I focusing on 142?
It is one of those pivotal levels and the last line of defense before 140 comes on the radar.
Support: 141.68 (Monday low), 140.23, 140.00
141.68 showing signs of pretty good support
More important than resistance is how USDJPY trades vs. 142 as that will dictate whether 140 comes under attack.
EURUSD WEEKLY CHART – REPATRIATIONS OR RISK OFF?
When yoU see markets like this one where stocks are melting down, you often see repatriations back hOme.
So whether EURUSD is being boosted by repatriations or safe haven flows, what matters tO traders is the 1.0980-00 level, especially the upper end at 1.10
Intra-day, 1.0950 will be important in dictating whether there is a run at 1,10 but the focus is clearly on US stocks as that is leading the risk off mood.
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