At least for today, all internal metrics are stacked to the sell side in Sterling, whereas Euro is stacked to the buy side. My preference is in accord with those metrics, so I am selling Sterling higher. Euro has to drop some for me to be on the buy side, same with Aussie.
Yen? BOJ threat has run its course for now, you can be on either side.
There are dominant internal metrics in US stocks on the buy side and in US Notes present early on this morning, which would suggest that Euro should sustain its post-data spike. This would be against the overall grain and some currencies are right at price levels where the would stall if the spike is to fail. Pivotal point right here. In my view nothing changes in the overall sell cycle for Sterling unless 2860 is compromised and the buying holds.
10-yr 3.94 at 7:59 in NY
and NFP day
–
Overnite stock bled some more and currently US stocks look like they ll open in a pool of blood as well – really only keeping in tune with seasonals
8:30 – NFP exp.: 175 vs 206 prev
Plus some dust details such as hrly wage and unemp rate
12:00 – barkin and goolsbee yak at separate events
Yesterday on the pundit circuit “sahm rule” was featured and discussed as reliable recession predictor. Folks were self-scaring themselves and others that the FED is slowing the economy faster than thought.
There is nothing like a combination of good scare and anxiety and fear gripping the player collective
33bps pricing rate cut in sept
I like DLRx (103.85) down some more
Ditto for USDYEN puppy (S 147.90 R 150.25)
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
August looks anxious already – as stock markets take fright at Big Tech earnings and start to reconsider ‘hard landing’ scenarios for the world economy just as central banks ease and bond yields plummet.
It’s been a frantic week’s trading in all corners of the financial world. Regardless of the recently vaunted rotation of stock sectors, the biggest rotation that’s emerging is one from stocks to bonds as ‘recession’ creeps back into parlance.
Morning Bid: Rethinking recession risks and AI, markets take fright
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