[SF Monedge]

For you JP –

The FED matters if you are position trading.  Goldman Sachs does not care about what the FED says or its dot plots other than to use it as a means to attack volatility and adjust exposure.  The reason I do not trust US government economic numbers……….

In 1969 a Mars chocolate bar cost me 10 cents at EZ Freezy Market in San Francisco and today it is $1.25, yet the production-packaging-shipping-distribution is more efficient.  This is not a supply/demand issue or a consumer confidence issue or a rate of change issue.  People want chocolate no matter what, everything is more expensive, and profit margins matter.  They can drop rates 10% and people will still gorge on chocolate.

Chocolate_1

Fed _ 0

Remaining long Usd/Jpy from lower.  Buying every reasonable pause.

[Mtl JP]

in the name of agrandissement ?

Five Big Questions for the Fed at Jackson Hole bbrg

There’s plenty to address beyond next month’s interest-rate move.
claims bill dudley

[SF Monedge]

The AMEX Gold Bugs Index went straight up and is a mix of risk on sentiment and hedging at the same time this time.  Geopolitical tension, war, failing economic structures, failing political con games weigh while ever-present demand not just to keep your girlfriend from complaining but for high end defense electronic and other solid use reasons.

And then there is speculation.  Buy side internal metrics a 5 times greater than sell side this morning.

[GVI Forex]

To put Friday price action in perspective

While we can’t ignore today’s 1% drop in USDJPY it is still up on the week vs. last Friday’s 146.63 close

EURUSD at 1.0996 is currently unchanged on the week

[Mtl JP]

yes yes yes … one post would be enough

I guess I am letting myself be “influenced” by m bowman”s smoke signals

[GVI Forex]

To put Friday price action in perspective

While we css as n’t ignore today’s 1% drop in USDJPY it is still up on the week vs. last Friday’s 146.63 close

EURUSD at 1.0996 is currently unchanged on the week

[GVI Forex]

JP you are the only one standing on a deserted island.

A Fed 25bps cut in Sept is as close as you can get to 100%

[GVI Forex]

JP you are the only one standing on a deserted island.

A Fed 25bps cut in Sept is as close as you can get to 100%

[GVI Forex]

JP you are the only one standing on a deserted island.

A Fed 2(bps cut in Sept is as close as you can get to 100%

[Mtl JP]

US 10-YR 3.888% -0.038; DLRx 102.50

10:00 – U of M sentiment
13:30 – goolsbee fireside chat

[SF Monedge]

A fill at 147.55 again would be nice.

[Mtl JP]

maybe I am like an orphan rabbit:

this “will be enough to get the easing cycle going” is exactly why …

the FED does not, should not, will not be cutting.

IMO

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY is taking the lead as the flavor of the day. Scroll below to see the update and watch 148 as the ultimate bias setter.

[GVI Forex]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

The U.S. economy is doing just fine and markets now accept a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month will be enough to get the easing cycle going as disinflation resumes.

Morning Bid: With US economy humming, a quarter point will do

[GVI Forex]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Real money flow

As you can see by this chart, while we are not privy to the order flow, there is clearly a real money selling driving this cross lower.

ON the downside, .8500 is the obvious pivotal level with next chart support at .8478. Back Above .8531-50 would be needed to suggest the order is done.

In any case, EURGBP selling has been a contributing factor to the firmer GBPUSD and EURUSD lag.

[GVI Forex]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART – 38.2%

A case can be made that the USDJPY rebound is just a retracement after the high (149.39) came close enough (149.42) to complete a 38.2% retracement.

As this chart shows, it would need to break 147.04 to suggest a resumption of the downtrend so use short-term charts to trade while above it.

In any case, 148 will now be pifotal in dictating whether the focus is on 147,.04 or 149-150.

[GVI Forex]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART –  OUTPERFORMING

GBPUSD is again outperforming, helped by demand from a further fall in EURGBP so keep an eye on this cross.

Daily chart shows only 1.2937 blocking the 1.4044 high

Intra-day, look for support as long as it trades above 1.2866-72, stronger if 1.2884-88 becomes support

[GVI Forex]

Scroll down to Bobby’s directional calls in GBPUSD and EURUSD

[GVI Forex]

Scroll down to Bobby’s directional calls in GBPUSD and EURUSD

[GVI Forex]

Scroll down to Bobby’s directional calls in GBPUSD and EURUSD

[Author]

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