US PPI softer than forecasts…
Yields down…dollar down…stocks up
I remember whebn PPI was largely ignored… not the case nowadays
See our Economic Calendar
Overnite Japanese stock players went nuts and it looks like carry trades are hot hot hot again ( tralalalaaah)
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August 13, 2024
pundits to the right of me, pundits to the left of me
if I only had a roc …
–
08:30 – PPI (ahead of Wednesday’s CPI)
– Expectation : +0.2% plus a few other metrics
– Players are want oh so badly to see data to be increasing FED’s “confidence” about inflation rate’s trajectory
– ATM players are pricing a sept cut but 50%-er is currently an outlier.
– Pretty well all market components appear discombobulated: DLRx up tiny bit, bonds narrow ditto stocks
–
VIX 20.50 screams volatility, tension, anxiety (all good things in my optique)
DLRx 102.95 looks softish atm
Sup 102.90; Res 103.50
13:15 – bostic yaks – on economy
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Much like Wall Street’s rapid healing on Friday, Japanese stocks completed their week-long, hair-raising round trip on Tuesday as Tokyo markets returned from holiday, wiped out the remainder of last week’s losses and nudged the yen lower.
Morning Bid: Market lull as PPI eyed, Nikkei returns to base
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING
A case can be made for a 145-148 (or 146-148) consolidation range after the brief blip yesterday to 148.22 failed to follow through. A solid move above 148 would be needed to put 150 in play again.
If USDJPY settles into a range, then the cost of carrying a long JPY may become a factor.
Otherwise markets seem to be waiting for
Iran to attack
US CPI on Wednesday
Risk on start (stocks up)
GBPUSD tests 1.28 after UK jobs report
JPY trading softer (but USDJPY is still below 148)
EURUSD lagging on EURGBP dip
XAUUSD backing off after testing 2477 resistance (noted yesterday)
Markets seem to be betting on no Middle East escalation assuming Iran will launch its strike
US CPI on Wed is not expected to alter rate cut expectations barring a surprise
Jay 3:49 my personal preference is for timesofisrael
like this latest on their f/page
“IDF on ‘peak alert’ for Iran, Hezbollah attacks; US expects it may happen this week
By Agencies, Emanuel Fabian, ToI Staff and Jacob Magid
Senior officials say Iran has made same preparations as it did before April attack, though exact timing of launch unknown; army says still no changes to civilian guidelines”
FWIW
EU’s Thierry Breton threatens Elon Musk over tonite’s Trump interview over some “harmful content” as imagined by Thierry
A USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader
In an article entitled A Bold Prediction for USDJPY I listed a series of forum posts from one of our long-time and highly respected Global-View community members, whom I called a savvy trader.
As you can see in the article, he called the top in USDJPY and more.
So, given what I called his bold prediction, I would be remiss if I didn’t share (with his permission) this email I received from him last night.
A USDJPY Update From the Savvy Trader
S&P 500 – SPX
US indexes waver ahead of economic data; CPI in focus
Real estate S5REAS and financials SPF were the top losers among S&P 500 sectors, down 1.1% and 0.6% respectively.
The benchmark S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite IXIC recouped most of their losses from last Monday by the end of the week. The S&P 500 had suffered its biggest one-day percentage drop in nearly two years on recession fears and the unwinding of currency carry trade positions involving the yen.
Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index reading and retailer earnings to assess demand by shoppers.
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