GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOUNCED OFF TRENDLINE
See this daily chart updated USING MY AMAZING TRADER CHARTING ALGO from the one I posted earlier (SCROLL BELOW) showing the key daily trandline has been tested
Bounce woud need to recover 1.2800-06 and stay above to suggest a low/pause.
I created The Amazing Trader and am still amazed when I see one of its lines, in this case a trendline, hold dead on.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
The Federal Reserve left Wall Street with little doubt about a first U.S. interest rate cut in seven weeks’ time, but multiple cross-currents from the earnings season, Japan and China, and domestic politics all make for a noisy start to August.
USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART -THE LEVEL TO WATCH
The bLow off to 148.50 and subsequent BOUNCE back to 150 HAS WIPED THE DECK OF STOPS and suggests potential for a pause/low but only if 150 is solidly regained.
On the upside, there is a minor double to at 150.31. Key resistance is at 151.25.
In any case, 150, which has now traded 2 days in a row IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH as it will dictate what comes next.
EURUSD DAILY CHART – THE ONLY LEVEL TO WATCH
EURUSD following the weaker GBPUSD with a lag and for me, the only level to watch is 1.08 as this will set the tone going forward.
There is little on a daily chart until 1.0710.
On the upside, the failure to take out 1.0850 set the stage for a fresh run lower.
Note the blue Amazing Trader lines indicating risk on the downside as long as it stays below 1.0870
GBPUSD DAILY CHART – BOE SET TO CUT RATES?
GBPUSD moving off the sidelines as price action suggests market is voting for a rate cut today.
Break of 1.2777 is significant if it holds.
Key daily trendline is around 1.2750.
Still above but coming closer to 100 (blue) and 200 (yellow) mvas.
Major level us 1.2612, the base of the move to 1.3044.
USD sliding towards 149
I posted this early on Wednesday
Stays offered while below 151.84 former double bottom
150.25 is next key support but 150 is the obvious target
Trendline is in the 148s, break would coinfirm what we already know.
145.89 is the key target if 150 is broken,
140.19 is a major target
Above 151.84-152.00 would be needed to slow the threat,
BoJ likely lurking to slow the downside, not reverse it,
August BoE MPC Preview: Doves edging towards a majority
Forecasters are very unsure about which way this month’s BoE MPC announcement will go but, on balance, seem to expect what would be the first cut in Bank Rate since March 2020. However, if so, it is likely to be a very close vote. June saw a relatively clear 7-2 split in favour of no change but official comments since then have hinted that the easing camp might now have a small majority. That said, uncertainty has been heightened by the blackout period for central bank rhetoric in the run up to the 4 July general election and with core inflation still high, a steady policy stance would hardly come as a big surprise. A 25 basis point reduction would put Bank Rate at 5.0 percent, matching its lowest level since May 2023….
Econoday
Key word: COULD
post-jerome presser headline round-up:
WSJ – By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve Clears Path for September Rate Cut
Officials made two important changes to their policy statement that acknowledged recent progress in their inflation fight and that pivoted closer to lowering rates without making any explicit commitment.
CNBC – By Darla Mercado
Fed recap: Chair Powell gives the September rate cut signal traders were hoping for
” Powell said a rate cut in September is “on the table,” provided the inflation data continues to be encouraging.”
New York Times
Rate Cut ‘Could Be on the Table’ at Next Fed Meeting, Powell Says
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, suggested an interest rate cut could be on the horizon after the central bank held rates steady at its most recent meeting.
CNN
Fed opts to hold interest rates steady — but a cut could be coming in September
“A rate cut could be on the table in the September meeting,”
Powell said Fed officials will have to weigh the “totality of the data.”
“Certainty is not a word that we have in our business,”
FoxNews
“A reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”
“The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market,” Powell said. “If that test is met, a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.”
FT
Federal Reserve says first cut to US interest rates could come in September
all aboard, all on the same side of the boat !
Nasdaq – NDX
Nasdaq rise on chip sector rally, Fed signals of upcoming rate cut
Nasdaq finished higher on Wednesday as chip stocks rallied and the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged but indicated it could begin easing monetary policy in September if inflation cools.
The Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range as it ended its two-day policymaking meeting on Wednesday, but opened the door to easing in September, seven weeks shy of the November U.S. elections.
During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers discussed the case for cutting rates, but a “strong majority” agreed that now was not the appropriate time.
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